This week on Limited Resources episode #39, Ryan and Marshall give a trip report from the SCG 5k in Seattle, a clan update, a virtual crack-a-pack, and have a Mulligan Battle.
Here is the theoretical hand given for the mulligan decision:
Forest, Forest, Mountain, Daggerback Basilisk, Might of the Masses, Ulamog’s Crusher, Snake Umbra.
Deathtouch plus snake umbra seems good. Only way that goes bad is if they 2 for 1 when you cast it. Are they blocking it? You’re happy, if not, you draw cards. I’d keep the hand.
I’m the same kind of Spike as Marshall, so I’m a little surprised he’d snap mulligan this hand. It’s not amazing by any stretch of the imagination but I think it’s a keeper. The crusher is a little awkward and makes this a virtual mulligan for sure, but the way I tend to analyse mulligans in situation like this is, ”If I’d already mull down to 6 and had this exact hand minus the worse card in it, would I keep or mull again?”
And this is a good example I think, let’s imagine you opened an awful 7 and mulled down to 6 cards with this exact hand minus the crusher, it would be an easy keep, no? But now, you get to have that decent 6 card hand plus the crusher if you ever get there. So to me, that’s a keep.
How do I win? By knowing that I’ve built a good deck with removal, good creature, a solid curve and card advantage that’ll reward me for playing it well. Easy 🙂
I’m pretty sure Marshall Sutcliffe ’16 keeps this hand, I should ask him. 🙂
I just listened to this episode while looking for help on mulligan decisions and thought the exact same thing!
The chance of land land land seems at a guess to be around 10% for an 18 land deck, and the chance of top decking your worst 4 cards 3 draws is far worse.
I’ve heard him say he was big on proactive curve out aggro decks early on, I think he was bringing this mindset to a ramp/control deck