This week on Limited Resources Marshall and Luis do a bunch of Throne of Eldraine underrated, overrated, and properly rateds, plus go deep with the hypergeometric calculator to help frame your mulligan and splashing decisions.
Hypergeometric Calculator: https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx
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About the probability of hitting a third land drop after a mulligan, I think it would be exactly the same as without a mulligan, since the card you put in the bottom isn’t shuffled (there are still only 33 unknown cards).